• Tech & Society

    A Blog by James Cusick

AI Point/Counterpoint Position Statement

Progress and Poverty: The Great Debate – Episode 1:
Is AI a Curse or a Blessing for Humanity?

Opening Statement

Introduction

Thank you for the introduction and for the opportunity to participate in this dialogue. I have tremendous respect for Tom, and I am humbled and delighted to be partnering with him in this discussion. I am eager to hear his perspective/appreciated hearing his point of view.

To get started in exploring this topic and presenting my perspective on it, I would like to ask a few questions at the outset. We can then try to explore them to attempt to reach a better understanding of what is a complex and interconnected story. My focus will be more the impact of AI and other technologies on equity as opposed to all factors driving equity.

  1. First, is AI a threat to economic equity or will it improve social equity? Or perhaps neither?
  2. More critically, how do we know such outcomes in advance? Does anyone know enough to be able to confidently answer these questions?
  3. Finally, for millions of years humas have made tools. These tools have typically (if not always) improved our lives over time. What is it that is special about AI technology that would have nearly the whole world simultaneously asking about its impact on our existence among other things?

My Background

It may be helpful to briefly sketch some of my experiences which create the lens through which I tend to see things.

  1. First, my professional background is in designing, building, and operating large-scale software systems. This includes creating and leading the organizations to realize such results and the processes to support them. My 40 years of experience in this type of work provides a practical view of the application of IT technology including AI to business problems.
  2. I have also studied the History of Science at NYU and the ideas of Henry George here at HGSSS. My readings in these areas provide a balance and a complement to my technical understanding of the potential of AI.
  3. Finally, I continue to conduct applied research in software engineering and computer science today including supporting new research in AI systems. This experience along with conversations with many leaders in computing around the world helps me better frame the trajectory and potential of recent advances.

Historical View

Let’s take each of these three questions one by one.

  1. To take on the first question regarding AI and economic equity let’s consider the impact of IT technology on jobs which has an outsize effect on equity.
    1. In the 1940s there were essentially zero jobs in digital computing. Today there are literally millions of jobs all over the world. Within the US alone 4% of the entire workforce is engaged in IT work. Of course, the multiplier effect generates an even larger economic impact from this employment.
    2. This growth changed lives for the better. Not only can consumers and businesses use software in a nearly infinite number of ways but for millions of people their livelihood was nearly guaranteed during their lifetimes when previously no such jobs (at relatively high pay) existed. This benefited the workers and their families including millions in India, China, and the developing world who joined the tech revolution.
    3. Similarly, once AI itself had been defined in the mid-1950s employment went from zero to an ever-growing segment within computing. Many of my own colleagues were working on AI projects in the 1980s and 1990s leading to a wide variety of breakthroughs and advanced applications.
    4. Today it is estimated that 3% of companies use some type of AI and this is growing. Such investments will tend to generate more jobs in the same manner as the IT boom of the post-war period created the information age and its expansion of jobs.
  1. As to the second question, that is more easily dispatched.
    1. As was first famously quipped by a Danish politician in the 1930s: “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
    2. Nevertheless, I did a quick survey of past predictions of the future of technology from the early 20th century till today. Decade by decade the trend has been that predictions tend to focus on what is hot at the time. First automobiles, then airplanes, then flying airplanes, then space travel, etc. Some predictions do come to fruition while others do not and end up getting recycled.
    3. Unfortunately, the accuracy of these predictions has been roughly 50/50. As for AI, I would propose that you can safely ignore half of what you hear. Choosing the half to pay attention to is the trick.
  1. Regarding the third question, I hold that most tools provide a net benefit to society.
    1. Clearly, early hunting tools allowed humans to survive and thrive. Later complex cultivation of wheat, grain, and rice allowed civilizations to form through ample food surpluses.
    2. This also was enabled by the first science – astronomy – which allowed us to guide planting and harvesting. To the ancient people’s, astronomers were like priests pursuing an art they did not understood but which everyone relied on. This is not unlike today where I do not know how to fly a commercial airliner, but I can still visit nearly every city on Earth because someone else can.
    3. I do not want to overlook the downside of technology. The most obvious example is nuclear weapons. The risk of human annihilation remains high due to this technological capability. I suppose we would all like to put the genie back in the bottle if we could.
    4. Which leads us back to AI. Why is it different? Personally, I think there is a combination of factors at play. Just like the ancient skywatchers knew something which the 99% did not know, today’s populace may never truly understand the ins and outs of AI technology. This can lead to fear and apprehension. Similarly, as an airline passenger it’s easy to understand the process of travel. You board in New York and deplane in Rome. It’s a digestible technology. AI is much less so and thus the end-of-humanity science fiction scenarios are easy to come to the fore. While there may be some negatives in store (like the errors AI systems are bound to make) I think the potential future benefits may be as amazing as the last 50 years of innovation in computing and software which we all use every day.

Equity Impacts

So, how does all this impact economic equity?

  1. AI will indeed create jobs and is doing so today. However, like any new technology it will also be a disruptor in the workforce. Recent data shows that in the US there are 155 million jobs with 31 million potentially at risk due to AI (or even simpler automation in the old fashion sense).
  2. At the same time, it is expected that AI driven job growth will equal about 34 million positions thus giving us a net 2% gain in jobs. Such jobs will require training and skills; however, this is life in a technically driven society.
  3. But are jobs the main indicator of economic equity? The Gini factor (where low scores are good) helps to determine this. The Gini factor in the US is higher than other developed countries like Japan and many European countries. In the US the Gini factor is also on the rise even though many new jobs have been created in the last few years. So, jobs alone do not lead to equity but also purchasing power, debt load, and other factors.
  4. Nevertheless, for knowledge workers, including those in IT and AI, equity can also be seen in their freedom to move within the economy. In technology it is said that all the IP of the company walks out the door every night. These prized workers are not techno-serfs but more like the craftsmen in the middle ages building cathedrals throughout Europe. Their skills result in more equity in a capital-intensive economy. With the rise of modern 20th century technical society many boats were lifted. This can happen again in the 21st century with AI and new technologies yet unimagined.
  5. Finally, however, technology itself is not the only factor in equity as we know. Distribution of technology, pricing, offshoring of jobs, etc., all play a part as does policy. However, if equity includes living a long life, protected by modern medicine, enjoying educational opportunities, travel, and a wide range of career options, then perhaps we have already attained a quantum of equity.

Conclusion

To conclude, technical progress in society by its nature both disrupts and improves. Earlier technologies are improved upon, supplanted, or subsumed and the economy transforms. Some call this Creative Destruction. For AI this will be no different. The various AI technologies you are using now and will use in the future (perhaps unbeknownst to you) will empower and improve your life. Just like the flint tools of our ancestors improved their lives, and the ancient astronomers knew when to plant.

So is it equitable if a widening group of people around the world benefit from advances in technology? Why shouldn’t we continue to democratize the benefits of invention? Personally, I look forward to seeing what comes next. Also, I know how to unplug my computer if it acts strangely!

Thank you for your attention and I welcome further discussion and questions.

References

  1. Fleming, Sean, A short history of jobs and automation, Emerging Technologies, World Economic Forum, September 3, 2020.
  2. Strukhoff, Roger, How Many People Should Work in IT? International Data Center Authority (IDCA), Posted on LinkedIn, November 29, 2016.
  3. Autor, David, Chin, Caroline, Salomons, Anna, and Seegmiller, Bryan, “New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940-2018,”, Quarterly Journal of Economics.
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